If you’re reading this, you probably don’t need another hype thread. You need signal: what matters, what moves price, and how to act with clear levels, triggers, and invalidations. That’s why RTRD Capital exists.
We’re a research & trading studio focused on the intersection of crypto and macro. Our job is to turn messy flows - ETF prints, basis and funding, options skew, RVWAP/Market Profile, net liquidity, credit cycle tells - into actionable playbooks for funds, trading teams, and corporate treasuries.
Why now — and why us
Crypto isn’t a side-quest anymore. It’s a liquidity regime. Spot ETFs, treasury buyers, and tokenized balance sheets have pulled BTC/ETH into the same conversation as DXY, real yields, and TIPS breakevens. If you’re not mapping macro → microstructure each week, you’re flying blind.
RTRD Capital was built by practitioners who trade this tape daily. We publish what we use: data → models → probabilistic scenarios, expressed with levels, targets, and invalidations you can actually execute.
What you’ll get
Bitcoin Signal (weekly): institutional-quality brief with the state of flows (spot ETFs, DATs, CME OI etc), regime read (Macro Index), Fair Value corridors, and HTF/LTF levels. Concise, tradable, time-boxed.
Model Suite (live):
BTC Macro Index: regime filter (Recovery / Expansion / Slowdown / Contraction) for direction and size.
BTC Fair Value Model: dynamic corridors to anchor entries/exits around RVWAP and volatility regimes.
BTC Macro Model (dashboard): liquidity, credit, real rates, DXY, NFCI—rolled into a composite Risk-On/Off signal.
Tactical Notes (intraweek): flow shifts, call-walls, put-floors, deltas that matter, and the “line in the sand” for the next 24–72h.
Playbooks: how to express a view across spot, perps, and options; where to scale, where to cut.
For treasuries: policy-safe frameworks for BTC/ETH exposure, “earn” overlays (staking/options), and risk rails.
Our edge
Flows first. Narrative follows liquidity. We track who’s buying (ETF creations, TCOs), how (basis, perp leverage), and where it fails (skew flips, exchange netflows, depth).
Context over calls. A good scenario has levels, triggers, invalidations. We publish all three.
Repeatable process. Same dashboard, every week. You’ll know what changed—and why it matters.
Who this is for
Funds, family offices, prop desks, and crypto pros. If you need memecoins and shitcoins, you won’t find them here.
What this is not
It’s not a tip sheet or a promise of returns. Markets are probabilistic. We run scenarios, size to risk, and live with the outcomes. You should too.
How we work with you
Free tier: weekly crypto summary and Bitcoin Signal overview.
Elite membership: real-time BTC and ETH signals in private Telegram group, daily chart updates, and BTC models updates.
Why I’m writing this
I’ve traded through liquidity cycles where ETF inflows, a softening DXY, and compressing real rates lifted all boats, and I’ve watched those same levers unwind. The winners weren’t the loudest calls. They were the disciplined frameworks: respect the regime, buy weakness inside fair value when flows confirm, sell premium when they don’t, and always, always know your invalidation.
If that resonates, you’re in the right place.
— RTRD Capital
Disclaimer: All content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Markets are volatile; you can lose capital. Do your own research and consult a licensed advisor where appropriate.